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PM Bulletin: BOJ and the yen
31 May 2016
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31 May 2016
PM Bulletin: Meanwhile in China
27 May 2016
AM Bulletin: Yellen in focus ahead of holiday weekend
27 May 2016
PM Bulletin: FTSE breaks above 6,200 again
26 May 2016
Holiday Schedule: Memorial Day 30th May 2016
26 May 2016
AM Bulletin: Brent crude tops $50
26 May 2016
PM Bulletin : Crude Chart
25 May 2016
AM Bulletin: “Risk-on” trade continues
25 May 2016
PM Bulletin: Another poll boost for sterling
24 May 2016
AM Bulletin: Equities slip as rate hike worries persist
24 May 2016
PM Bulletin: Changing expectations
23 May 2016
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23 May 2016
PM Bulletin : Significant events ahead of June FOMC
20 May 2016
AM Bulletin: Preparing for a summer rate hike
20 May 2016
PM Bulletin : Gold struggles as dollar strengthens
19 May 2016
AM Bulletin: FOMC more hawkish than anticipated
19 May 2016
PM Bulletin : FOMC minutes and the S&P
18 May 2016
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18 May 2016
PM Bulletin: Cable rallies on latest poll
17 May 2016
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17 May 2016
Weekly Bulletin : Waiting on Central Banks
13 May 2016
PM Bulletin : Apple
13 May 2016
Holiday Schedule Whit Monday Market Holiday
13 May 2016
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13 May 2016
PM Bulletin : Silver and Gold
12 May 2016
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12 May 2016
PM Bulletin: Two headaches for Elon Musk
11 May 2016
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11 May 2016
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10 May 2016
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10 May 2016
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09 May 2016
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09 May 2016
May: Non Farm Payrolls Out Today
06 May 2016
PM Bulletin: A dismal Non-Farm Payroll number
06 May 2016
AM Bulletin: Non-Farm Payrolls in focus
06 May 2016
PM Bulletin: Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead
05 May 2016
AM Bulletin: Crude bounce lifts equities
05 May 2016
PM Bulletin: Apple update
04 May 2016
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04 May 2016
PM Bulletin: Aussie dollar slumps
03 May 2016
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03 May 2016
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Back in December when the US central bank raised rates for the first time since June 2006, the FOMC also released a set of economic projections. These included a prediction from the majority of the seventeen members of the Fed that interest rates would increase by an additional 100 basis points during the course of 2016. This prediction (along with the 25 basis point hike) contributed to a New Year equity market melt-down. Then, as fresh data came through and fears over the outlook for the global economy grew, the Fed was widely ridiculed for its hawkishness. The FOMC toned down its predictions when it released its latest Summary of Economic Projections in March. But ahead of these the market had already decided that the pace of US monetary tightening was likely to be much slower than anticipated by the Fed. Certainly, the likelihood of a rate hike in June (or July for that matter) was viewed as practically zero.  
But over the past few weeks we have seen a succession of Federal Reserve members sound off concerning the market’s expectations for rate hikes for the rest of the year. The Fed is obviously desperate to keep the June meeting “live” in terms of tightening monetary policy.
Then on Wednesday we saw the minutes of the April FOMC meeting which were considered more hawkish than expected. Perhaps the key takeaway from the minutes is in this passage where it was noted that it “would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June” should incoming data be consistent with a pick-up in economic growth, including continued improvement in the US labour market and inflation “making progress” to the Committee’s 2% inflation target.
What this means is that every single data release and economic event between now and the FOMC meeting which takes place over 14th-15th June has the ability to move markets dramatically.
Here are the most significant ones:

21st May G7
23rd May FOMC Member Bullard speaks
26th May US Durable Goods
Weekly Jobless Claims
27th May US Preliminary GDP(first revision)
30th May FOMC Member Bullard Speaks 
31st May Core PCE Price Index
Chicago PMI
US Consumer Confidence
1st June  Manufacturing data- US,China,UK.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment
2nd June OPEC meetings
ECB rate decision and press conference
US Challenger Job Cuts
US Weekly Jobless Claims
3rd June US Non-Farm Payrolls
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
FOMC member Evans speaks
6th June US Federal Reserve Chair Yellen speaks
9th June Chinese Trade Balance
US Weekly Jobless Claims
12th June Chinese Industrial production/Fixed asset Investment/Retail Sales
14th June US Retail Salesy
15th June Bank of Japan meeting and press conference
US PPI/Empire State Manufacturing/Capacity Utilisation/Industrial production
FOMC statement and rate decision 

The Fed is obviously desperate to keep the June meeting “live” in terms of tightening monetary policy.

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Posted by David Morrison

Tagged: Bulletin PM

Category: PM Bulletin

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